Credit Research
Systematic analysis of distressed credit, insured infrastructure, and structured credit cascades. Exploring the hidden vulnerabilities and structural risks in modern financial markets.
Featured Analysis
The Terminal Signal: Institutional Positioning and the Consumer Credit Endgame
StructuralReport 12 · Architecture of risk: 2007 benchmark · banks → insurers · three concealment masks · Delman v. Blue Owl Confirmed Derived
The Consumer Credit Ecosystem: From Rejected Application to Retirement Fund
Signal ActiveReport 11 · Pipeline map: ~$200bn cargo · five absorbers · pension destination · Jul 2026 trigger Confirmed Signal
Latest Research
The Sports Sponsorship Signal: A Non‑Financial Leading Indicator of Credit Sector Stress
Signal ActiveReport 10 · Behavioural indicator: 100% historical hit rate (2004‑08) - the 2024‑26 cycle repeating at ~10× scale Confirmed Derived
The Consumer Credit Waterfall: Auto Loans to Pension Funds
Elevated RiskSignal: Nine levels of intermediation - $5.10tn consumer credit → pension fund ETFs Derived FRED verified
Thames Water: Liquidity‑Gated Restructuring
Critical 88/100Impact lens: AGO ~$1.04bn expected loss Derived
The 2026 De‑SPAC Convertible Debt Maturity Wall
Maturity WallSqueeze: 5yr PIPE converts deep OTM → cash settlement crisis Modeled
Consumer ABS: Origination to Default
Elevated DefaultsSignal: Debt buyers collecting $4.69bn at 7–10¢/$ Derived
Insurance & Reinsurance: Systemic Risk Profile
Sector NoteCore risk: Concentration & funding chains Modeled
US CRT & SRT: Systemic Risk
Structured CreditMarket state: Bifurcated & opaque Modeled
BNPL Sector: Systemic Risk Profile
Sector NoteCore thesis: Funding is procyclical Modeled
SRT Market: Systemic Risk Profile (Europe)
Structured CreditCore risk: Liquidity & procyclicality Modeled
Hidden Vulnerabilities in Consumer Credit
System MapKey idea: Risk is in the plumbing Modeled
Research Focus
Distressed Credit / EMEA
Regulatory‑constrained, liquidity‑driven restructurings in essential services.
Insured Infrastructure
Concentration risk in wrapped senior exposures and monoline guarantors.
Systemic Cascades
Transmission channels from single‑name stress to sector‑wide repricing events.