Credit Research
Institutional credit intelligence
Systematic analysis of distressed credit, insured infrastructure, and structured credit cascades. Powered by the Crassus V5.0 Intelligence Terminal.
Featured Analysis
The Terminal Signal: Institutional Positioning and the Consumer Credit Endgame
StructuralReport 12 · Architecture of risk: 2007 benchmark · banks → insurers · three concealment masks · Delman v. Blue Owl Confirmed Derived
The Consumer Credit Ecosystem: From Rejected Application to Retirement Fund
Signal ActiveReport 11 · Pipeline map: ~$200bn cargo · five absorbers · pension destination · Jul 2026 trigger Confirmed Signal
Latest Research
The Sports Sponsorship Signal: A Non‑Financial Leading Indicator of Credit Sector Stress
Signal ActiveReport 10 · Behavioural indicator: 100% historical hit rate (2004‑08) - the 2024‑26 cycle repeating at ~10× scale Confirmed Derived
The Consumer Credit Waterfall: Auto Loans to Pension Funds
Elevated RiskSignal: Nine levels of intermediation - $5.10tn consumer credit → pension fund ETFs Derived FRED verified
Thames Water: Liquidity‑Gated Restructuring
Critical 88/100Impact lens: AGO ~$1.04bn expected loss Derived
The 2026 De‑SPAC Convertible Debt Maturity Wall
Maturity WallSqueeze: 5yr PIPE converts deep OTM → cash settlement crisis Modeled
Consumer ABS: Origination to Default
Elevated DefaultsSignal: Debt buyers collecting $4.69bn at 7–10¢/$ Derived
Insurance & Reinsurance: Systemic Risk Profile
Sector NoteCore risk: Concentration & funding chains Modeled
US CRT & SRT: Systemic Risk
Structured CreditMarket state: Bifurcated & opaque Modeled
BNPL Sector: Systemic Risk Profile
Sector NoteCore thesis: Funding is procyclical Modeled
SRT Market: Systemic Risk Profile (Europe)
Structured CreditCore risk: Liquidity & procyclicality Modeled
Hidden Vulnerabilities in Consumer Credit
System MapKey idea: Risk is in the plumbing Modeled
Intelligence Terminal
Our published research is powered by the Crassus V5.0 Intelligence Terminal - a proprietary analytical platform integrating real‑time macro data, equity fundamentals, SEC regulatory filings, and options intelligence into a unified research environment.
Macro
FRED integration with 29 curated economic series across credit, rates, inflation, labor, and output.
Equity
Fundamental analysis with price history, sector classification, revenue, debt, and cash flow.
Filings
SEC profile, insider transactions via Form 4, and direct links to regulatory documents.
Options
Put‑call ratio analysis, IV rank and percentile, volume and open interest with bullish/bearish signals.
Research Focus
Distressed Credit / EMEA
Regulatory‑constrained, liquidity‑driven restructurings in essential services.
Insured Infrastructure
Concentration risk in wrapped senior exposures and monoline guarantors.
Systemic Cascades
Transmission channels from single‑name stress to sector‑wide repricing events.